BizwavemediaPersonal Finance and Crypto Updates

SoftBank Group is becoming increasingly tied to the fortunes of OpenAI after the AI startup drove a $46 billion annual gain at the company’s Vision Fund business.

The Tokyo-based investment conglomerate reported Wednesday that nearly all of the Vision Fund’s gains for the fiscal year ended March came from the rising value of its OpenAI investment, which generated roughly $45 billion in gains after the group invested more than $30 billion into the company.

This means that 98% of the fund’s return is dependent on one company. The remaining portfolio, including stakes in Coupang, DiDi Global, and Klarna, actually dragged performance down. In the final quarter alone, the Vision Fund notched around $20 billion in gains, with OpenAI accounting for virtually all of it while those other bets lost money.

SoftBank Group has committed more than $64 billion to OpenAI through its Vision Fund platform, making the AI startup the centerpiece of the company’s AI strategy.

The investments began in 2024 and expanded rapidly through early 2026. SoftBank had committed roughly $34.6 billion by February before announcing an additional $30 billion investment that would increase its ownership stake in OpenAI to about 13%.

OpenAI’s valuation rocketed from $157 billion in October 2025 to $852 billion by March 2026, roughly a 5.4x increase in five months. The AI lab also hit a $2 billion monthly revenue run rate by March.

On earnings, SoftBank reported a 5 trillion yen annual net profit, driven mainly by gains at the Vision Fund and its telecommunications operations, while executives stressed maintaining financial discipline amid growing AI exposure.

Super Micro Computer just told Wall Street it expects to pull in between $38.9 billion and $40.4 billion in net sales for fiscal year 2026.

The guidance, announced on May 5, 2026, landed alongside the appointment of Vik Malyala as the company’s new Chief Business Officer.

The numbers behind the confidence

The company’s third quarter of fiscal year 2026 delivered net sales of $10.2 billion. That figure represents a doubling of revenue compared to the same period a year earlier.

Net income for Q3 FY26 came in at $483 million, representing growth north of 200% on a year-over-year basis.

Q2 FY26 sales were reported at $12.68 billion, meaning the $10.2 billion Q3 figure actually represented a sequential dip.

Q1 CY2026 revenue hit $10.24 billion, a 123% increase year-over-year, but still came in below the $12.38 billion that analysts had penciled in. The company guided Q2 CY2026 at $11.75 billion.

Context: the long and bumpy road

Shares were recently trading around $35.37, with a target price sitting at $36.75.

What this means for investors

The $38.9–40.4 billion guidance range provides a full-year framework that smooths out quarter-to-quarter volatility. If you take the midpoint of the guidance, roughly $39.7 billion, and subtract the approximately $33.1 billion in sales already reported or guided across Q1 through Q3, the implied Q4 revenue sits in the range of $6–7 billion — a sequential decline from Q3’s $10.2 billion.

Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are both pushing aggressively into AI server territory. Dell in particular has been vocal about its AI server pipeline reaching multi-billion-dollar levels.

President Trump announced plans on May 11, 2026 to temporarily suspend the federal gasoline tax, a move that signals the White House sees the US-Iran conflict dragging on well past its current 11-week mark. The proposed 90-day halt to the 18.4-cent-per-gallon levy is designed to cushion American drivers from gas prices that have blown past $5 per gallon in many states.

Here’s the thing: a tax holiday that saves you roughly $2.75 on a 15-gallon fill-up sounds more like a gesture than a solution. But the real story isn’t the pennies at the pump. It’s what the decision tells us about how long Washington expects this war to last, and what that means for everything from global oil markets to the cost of mining Bitcoin.

The war premium on everything

The US-Iran conflict, sparked by escalating tensions in the Strait of Hormuz in late February 2026, has redrawn the global energy map in a matter of weeks. Oil prices have surged 25% since the fighting began. Global stock markets have shed 4% over the same period.

The Strait of Hormuz is essentially the world’s oil jugular. Roughly one-fifth of global petroleum passes through it on any given day.

Bitcoin’s strange dual reality

Bitcoin’s price has climbed 15% over the past 30 days. That tracks with a pattern we’ve seen before: when geopolitical chaos rattles traditional markets, a slice of capital flows into digital assets as a hedge.

But there’s a wrinkle. The same energy crisis that’s driving investors toward Bitcoin is simultaneously making Bitcoin more expensive to produce. Rising fuel costs are estimated to have pushed mining expenses up by 10-15% in regions that rely heavily on fossil fuels for electricity generation.

Miners in places like Texas and Kazakhstan, where natural gas and coal still dominate the energy mix, are feeling the squeeze most acutely. Meanwhile, miners powered by hydroelectric, solar, or wind energy are sitting in a comparatively comfortable position. The war premium on fossil fuels doesn’t touch their cost structure in the same way.

What this means for crypto investors

A 90-day timeline suggests the administration is planning for a summer of elevated energy prices at minimum. That has second and third-order effects on inflation broadly, on Federal Reserve rate decisions, and on risk appetite across every asset class.

For Bitcoin specifically, the calculus splits into two competing forces. Demand-side pressure is bullish: more uncertainty means more interest in non-sovereign stores of value. Supply-side pressure is bearish for miners: higher energy costs compress margins, potentially reducing the rate at which new coins enter circulation and forcing weaker operators to sell reserves to cover costs.

Analysts are also pointing to growing interest in energy-focused crypto protocols and tokenized commodity markets. Tokenized oil futures, decentralized energy trading platforms, and protocols that link mining operations to renewable energy credits are all seeing elevated attention.

The 90-day window Trump has proposed for the tax suspension is worth watching closely. If it gets extended, that tells you the administration sees no resolution on the horizon. And every additional week of conflict makes the energy-cost pressure on mining operations more severe while simultaneously reinforcing Bitcoin’s narrative as a wartime hedge.

The ceasefire between the US and Iran, barely five weeks old, is already on the verge of collapse. President Trump declared the truce is on “massive life support” after rejecting Iran’s counterproposal to a US peace framework, calling the document “a piece of garbage.”

What happened

The ceasefire was established on April 7, 2026, following a period of military escalation between Washington and Tehran.

Iran’s counterproposal to the US peace strategy omitted what Washington considers the non-negotiable centerpiece: the extraction of highly enriched uranium from Iranian territory. Instead, Tehran added demands for war reparations, the resumption of oil sales, and assurances against nuclear armament.

Trump was not impressed. “Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon,” he said, adding that Iran has “been defeated militarily.”

Iran, predictably, does not share that assessment. Ebrahim Rezaei, an Iranian parliamentary spokesperson, threatened to resume uranium enrichment to 90% purity, a level that is weapons-grade. Rezaei also warned of military action if Iran is attacked.

The Strait of Hormuz problem

Roughly one-fifth of global oil supply passes through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day. Brent crude prices climbed 2.7% on the news.

The UK is deploying resources to help secure the strait. Meanwhile, Israel has sent anti-missile systems to the UAE, which sits directly across the strait from Iran.

What this means for crypto investors

Past parallels to Strait of Hormuz escalations have coincided with Bitcoin drops of around 3%. When institutional investors get spooked by energy price shocks, they reduce exposure to risk assets broadly.

There’s a secondary channel worth monitoring as well. Iran has historically used cryptocurrency to circumvent sanctions and facilitate oil trade. A full breakdown in negotiations could lead to tighter enforcement of sanctions compliance across crypto exchanges, particularly those with exposure to Middle Eastern trading volumes.

President Donald Trump is heading to Beijing for a summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, and the agenda reads like a geopolitical stress test. At the top of the list: the war in Iran, a choked-off Strait of Hormuz, and the energy crisis rippling through both economies.

It marks the first time a sitting US president has visited China in nearly a decade.

The Strait of Hormuz problem

Roughly a fifth of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz on any given day. China’s crude oil imports dropped 20% in April 2026, a direct consequence of maritime disruptions in and around the strait.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has publicly called on China to join an international effort to reopen the waterway.

Energy expert Tom Kloza has projected that gasoline prices could exceed $5 per gallon if the strait remains closed.

A ceasefire on life support

Trump himself has described the Iran ceasefire as being on “massive life support.”

The US position appears to be that China holds a unique card in this situation. Tehran’s economic ties to Beijing give Xi a degree of influence that Washington simply doesn’t have.

Analysts are skeptical. The consensus view heading into the summit is that significant breakthroughs on either Iran or broader trade issues are unlikely.

What’s not on the table

Taiwan and the broader US-China trade relationship are expected to hover in the background without any real resolution.

What this means for markets

For crypto markets, sustained high energy prices act as a drag on consumer spending and economic growth broadly, which historically hasn’t been kind to risk assets, Bitcoin included.

Elevated geopolitical tension typically strengthens the dollar as a safe haven, which puts downward pressure on dollar-denominated assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum.

If the $5-per-gallon threshold gets breached heading into summer, the political pressure on the administration to find a resolution will become enormous.

Garrett Jin, the founder of collapsed crypto exchange BitForex, deposited approximately 577,896 ETH into Binance over a four-day stretch ending May 11. The total haul: roughly $1.35B worth of Ethereum, capped by a final transfer of 225,627 ETH valued at $528 million.

Roughly eight months ago, Jin swapped a substantial BTC position into ETH at a price of $4,591 per coin. At current prices, that trade has produced an estimated $1.3B in unrealized losses.

Analysts tracking the deposits have flagged two competing interpretations. The bearish read is straightforward: Jin is preparing to liquidate, which would dump significant supply into the market and potentially trigger cascading sell pressure. The alternative view is that Jin could be positioning for staking, lending, or further trading rather than an outright sale. No confirmed sell orders have been initiated in connection with these deposits, which lends some credibility to the repositioning thesis.

Jin’s deposits aren’t happening in isolation. The Ethereum Foundation sold 100,000 ETH on April 26 at a price of $2,337, a move that reignited debate about centralization risks and how large holders influence ETH’s supply dynamics.

The immediate risk is clear: if Jin begins liquidating even a fraction of his 577,896 ETH position on Binance, the sell pressure could weigh on ETH’s price in the short term. A $1.35B position represents meaningful supply relative to ETH’s daily trading volume. For ETH holders, the key metric to watch is Binance outflow data. If Jin’s ETH starts moving off the exchange or into staking contracts, that’s a signal the deposits were strategic rather than a prelude to selling.

There’s also the reputational angle. Jin founded BitForex, an exchange that collapsed. Large, opaque movements from founders of failed platforms tend to attract regulatory scrutiny and erode market trust, regardless of the actual intent behind the trades.

The relationship between Washington and Beijing just got another layer of ugly. US intelligence has reportedly indicated that China is preparing to ship shoulder-fired air defense systems to Iran, routing them through third countries to obscure Beijing’s involvement. The timing could not be more combustible, landing squarely in the middle of an escalating tariff war where Trump has threatened to slap 50% duties on Chinese goods.

What US intelligence is alleging

The core claim from US intelligence is straightforward. China is reportedly preparing to deliver MANPADS to Iran by routing them through intermediary nations, a classic sanctions-evasion playbook that makes attribution harder and diplomatic consequences easier to dodge.

China has flatly denied the allegations, calling the claims untrue. That denial lands in a broader context where concerns have already been raised about Chinese firms supplying dual-use technology to Iran, items that have both civilian and military applications, amid ongoing international sanctions.

The stakes here extend well beyond the bilateral China-Iran relationship. US officials are concerned that Chinese-supplied air defense systems could undermine US-brokered ceasefires in the region. MANPADS in the hands of Iranian forces, or Iranian proxies, would fundamentally change the threat calculus for American and allied air operations across the Middle East.

The tariff dimension

Trump’s threat of 50% tariffs on Chinese goods adds economic pressure to what is already a tense military and diplomatic situation. Here’s the thing about 50% tariffs: they represent a near-doubling of the cost basis for Chinese imports into the US market, one that would ripple through supply chains from consumer electronics to industrial components.

What this means for investors

Despite the geopolitical fireworks, crypto markets have shown no observable reaction to either the weapons intelligence or the tariff threats. Trading volumes and token valuations have remained largely unmoved.

Some observers have raised the possibility that privacy coins or decentralized finance protocols could theoretically be used in sanctions evasion schemes connected to state actors. But no substantial evidence or analysis has emerged to support those implications in this specific case.

The more relevant market risk for crypto investors is indirect. A full-blown 50% tariff on Chinese goods would send shockwaves through traditional financial markets, potentially triggering risk-off sentiment that historically drags crypto down alongside equities. Bitcoin and other major tokens have shown increasing correlation with macro risk sentiment during periods of acute geopolitical stress.